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Hi team,
The follow is a guest post prepared by the wonderful Scott Donaldson from Super Rugby Tips and his round 4 preview of the ITM Cup.
ITM Cup Round 4 Preview – Ranfurly Shield
Goes On The Line!
The highlight of ITM Cup Round 4 will be
the Ranfurly Shield challenge between Hawkes Bay and Counties on Saturday
afternoon. It is amazing seeing what the
Ranfurly Shield has done to the ITM Cup.
It turns fixtures between two truly provincial teams like Counties and
Hawkes Bay into a massive match. The
history of the Ranfurly Shield has breathed new life into the ITM Cup with
teams like Otago and Hawkes Bay not winning the famous Log of Wood since the
1950s and 1960s respectively, while Counties has never won it. I think Counties drought will continue since
Hawkes Bay do look like a slick side, while Counties haven’t reached their 2012
form which saw them get promoted to the ITM Cup Premiership.
Most of the other games should be
relatively predictable, although the Tasman vs Otago fixture is one I am
looking forward to. The Championship
heavyweights like Auckland, Canterbury and Wellington are yet to play each
other while this round both teams meeting tonight, Auckland and Counties have
two games. Given that Counties second
match will be a Ranfurly Shield challenge against Hawkes Bay, it will be
difficult to know if their mind will be on tonight’s game.
Auckland should be too strong for Counties
tonight. They are resting some of their
players for this match. Auckland are a
strange team as they are still unbeaten, but haven’t played any heavyweight
teams and struggled to put away Championship minnows Manawatu and North
Harbour. It will be interesting to see
how much Counties wants to put into this game given the Ranfurly Shield
challenge on Saturday. Their hand has
probably been forced though since they lost to Championship team Tasman last
week. I am going for a relatively close
margin in this game because it is supposed to be wet for this one.
In other matches some of the heavyweights
are playing against lesser ranked teams away from home with Wellington,
Canterbury, Waikato and Auckland’s second match for the round against Taranaki
likely to see some changes as they rest and rotate players. Because the All Blacks are playing this
weekend then there will be less fringe All Blacks players in the ITM Cup over
the next few rounds. In previous seasons
I would have picked the odd upset in these games, but this season there does
seem to be a gulf between the top bracket of teams and the rest. I am picking relatively low margins in some
of these games rather than upsets.
I wouldn’t put Waikato in the top echelon
category yet, but the Southland Stags will need to lift their game if they are
to win on Friday night, although it is tough for visitors to Invercargill and
Waikato have been unimpressive. That
match is probably the most likely for an upset in my opinion. Auckland could be vulnerable against
Taranaki in their second game for the round, but like Southland, Taranaki will
need to improve.
Tasman vs Otago and Manawatu vs North
Harbour are probably the two toughest games to pick in ITM Cup Round 4. Otago will be hurting after losing the Ranfurly
Shield, but this Tasman team should still be too strong. They have been impressive. If Francis Sailli was playing then I would
pick North Harbour, but since he is likely to be involved in the All Blacks
squad then the Manawatu vs North Harbour game is definitely in the
balance.
Finally, I find it interesting that ITM Cup
Championship teams Hawkes Bay, Otago and Tasman all look better than some of
the ITM Cup Premiership teams. It means
that the ITM Cup Premiership looks like a battle between Canterbury, Wellington
and Auckland, but it is the Championship battle between Hawkes Bay, Otago and
Tasman that is more exciting for me.
Call me a purist!
My ITM Cup Round 4 picks
Auckland by 7 points
Canterbury by 21 points
Waikato by 3 points (as a Stags fan I hope
I am wrong with that one).
Tasman by 14 points
Auckland by 6 points
Hawke’s Bay by 10 points
Manawatu by 1 point
Wellington by 18 points
Who are you picking to win ITM Cup rugby
Round 4 matches? Does your team have a
chance?
Thanks again Scott for your wonderful post.
Thoughts team?
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